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Baseline compare — how today differs from the struck Q2 baseline
Two synthetic posture snapshots of the same fictional organization, both computed by the same pure engine the console runs — the baseline differs only in its inputs: an earlier slice of the feed, and a register that had not yet onboarded the Red Sea lane, recorded a treatment, or run a review cycle. The honest mixed story a board actually gets: exposure rose while the program improved, and every escalation below is attributed to the world rather than to this org’s own data or the scoring.
Comparison basis
Q3-2026 baseline (synthetic) (2026-07-21) → Today (synthetic) (2026-10-06). A struck baseline is the only honest way to answer “how does today differ from the position we signed off?” — likelihood is computed when you read it, so a weights release silently rewrites today; only the frozen point preserves then. Every changed row below carries a cause tag: world (the feed moved), profile (your own assets, criticality or treatments moved), or methodology (same cited evidence, different score).
Methodology stamp: argus-methodology-2026.05 → argus-methodology-2026.10 — the two points were scored under different methodology versions. No row's movement is attributable to it here: the math is only ever blamed when a likelihood moved on identical cited evidence, and no row did that.
Theater movement
Likelihood (1–5) per theater across the window. A theater with no scored activity at one of the two points shows —.
No theater likelihood moved between the two points.
Register diff
9 rows moved: 0 escalated · 2 new · 3 newly treated · 4 de-escalated. Attributed to 9 profile. Rows that did not move are omitted.
| Asset | Theater | Change | Cause | Inherent (baseline → today) | Residual (baseline → today) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU shipping route — Red Sea transit route-redsea | Red Sea & Horn of Africa | new | profile | — → 12 high | no treatment recorded |
| EU distribution hub — Rotterdam hub-rotterdam | Inherited | new | profile | — → 6 medium | no treatment recorded |
| Manufacturing plant — Shenzhen plant-shenzhen | South China Sea | newly-treated | profile | 12 high → 12 high | untreated → 2 low |
| Foundry partner — Hsinchu fab-hsinchu | Taiwan Strait | newly-treated | profile | 10 high → 10 high | untreated → 10 high |
| EMS partner — Kaohsiung ems-kaohsiung | Taiwan Strait | newly-treated | profile | 8 medium → 8 medium | untreated → 8 medium |
| EMS partner — Kaohsiung ems-kaohsiung | Natural hazard | de-escalated | profile | 16 critical → — | no treatment recorded |
| Manufacturing plant — Shenzhen plant-shenzhen | Natural hazard | de-escalated | profile | 16 critical → — | no treatment recorded |
| Manufacturing plant — Guadalajara plant-guadalajara | Natural hazard | de-escalated | profile | 15 critical → — | no treatment recorded |
| Sales & FAE office — Taipei office-taipei | Natural hazard | de-escalated | profile | 8 medium → — | no treatment recorded |