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Wargame — run a scenario against the register
A continuity exercise, computed rather than written down. Pick a scenario (or compose injects yourself), andArgus recomputes this fictional organization’s exposure with the hypothetical events added — same engine, same register, same units — then shows exactly which rows move and by how much — or why nothing moved. A null result is a result: a region already rated high can absorb a handful of simulated incidents without moving up a level, and the run says that plainly, with the arithmetic, instead of showing a blank. Nothing here is intelligence: the injects did not happen, the run exists only in this browser tab, and no simulated event is ever stored, published to the feed, or evaluated for alerts.
1 · Pick an exercise
ISO 22301 clause 8.5 asks for an exercise programme. Each pack is an ordered set of hypothetical events; the run adds them to this organization’s feed in memory, recomputes the register with the same pure engine the console uses, and diffs the result. The engines, the feed, and the API are untouched.
Taiwan Strait escalation ladder — A ten-day coercive ladder: announced live-fire exercise areas, then coast-guard and naval incursions into the contiguous zone, then missile activity. Shows a continuity planner how sustained tempo — not one dramatic event — drives a theater's likelihood, which sites cross into critical as it climbs, and how the damped one-hop dependency carries that into a downstream plant that is nowhere near the strait.
draft — pending analyst review Argus product team (Brian Hyde) · v2026.09-draft · grounded in Taiwan Ministry of National Defense — daily PLA activity reports (the feed's tw-mnd source); U.S. Department of Defense — Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC (annual report to Congress); CSIS ChinaPower — PLA activity tracking around Taiwan
| Day | Type | Theater | Confidence | Inject |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | Military exercise | Taiwan Strait | high | EXERCISE — Live-fire exercise areas declared west of Kaohsiung, closing two commercial lanes for 72 hours |
| +2 | Military exercise | Taiwan Strait | high | EXERCISE — Joint air-sea readiness patrol declared around the island; exercise areas extended north |
| +4 | Maritime incursion | Taiwan Strait | high | EXERCISE — Coast-guard cutters enter the contiguous zone off Kinmen and board a merchant vessel |
| +7 | Maritime incursion | Taiwan Strait | high | EXERCISE — Sustained naval presence astride the northern approach; two carriers reroute |
| +10 | Missile activity | Taiwan Strait | high | EXERCISE — Ballistic missile test closes airspace east of the island for six hours |
2 · Propose controls (optional)
A scenario alone only shows damage. Add a hypothetical 5Rs control and the run reports how much of that damage it absorbs — inherent risk is untouched, residual moves. These model an additional control alongside anything you have already recorded; they are never saved, and your real treatment programme is not modified.
3 · Run it
The run is arithmetic in this browser tab: 12673 feed events + 5 injected events over 13 assets, computed as of 2026-10-06.